‘Reverse Indicator’ Oil Market Narratives and the Traders Who Love Them
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(Image Credit: Yahoo Finance via app at 8:43am 4/2/26)
By Stan Szymanski
This is NOT financial advice. For informational purposes only.
…’At 4:12 PM ET on Sunday, Iran's Speaker of the Parliament said pre-market news is a "reverse indicator," if they "dump" the market, then "go long," and "if they pump it, short it."…(The Kobeissi Letter on X)
The Kobeissi Letter (TKL) is certainly worth the follow. IMHO, whether you do it on ‘X’ or on LinkedIn or some other platform, you will receive a lot of info during the day with which to input into your own decision making and intelligence.
Earlier in the trading day (yesterday, 4/1/26), TKL reported the following:
…’BREAKING: The US and Iran are discussing a potential deal that would involve a ceasefire in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, per Axios.
Details include:
1. China and Pakistan reportedly presented a peace initiative along those lines on Tuesday
2. Earlier today, Ian's Foreign Ministry called Trump's claims that Iran has requested a ceasefire to be "false and baseless."
3. US officials have cautioned that it was unclear whether a deal could be reached
The nonstop headlines continue.’…(TKL via LinkedIn 4/1/26)
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Then, about 5 hours later, later this report came in via TKL:
…’BREAKING: Tonight, in his 9 PM ET address to the nation, President Trump will declare that the Iran War is "winding down," per POLITICO.
Details include:
1. Trump consistently "telegraphed that message" over the past 24 hours
2. The speech is expected to claim that "all military objectives have been met"
3. Trump is expected to "scapegoat" NATO allies for the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz
4. There is still "little evidence" that the US and Iran are "anywhere close to an agreement"
US oil prices are still trading at $100/barrel.’…(TKL via LinkedIn 4/1/26)
So hours before the prime time speech of 9pm last night 4/1/26, TKL reported at least two established news outlets (Axios and POLITICO) reported that the U.S. was allegedly in talks with Iran regarding a ceasefire. As pointed out by TKL in the post above, ‘Earlier today, Ian's (Iran’s) Foreign Ministry called Trump's claims that Iran has requested a ceasefire to be "false and baseless.’
Corroborating reports like this give a kind of ‘moral suasion’; a type of authority that comes from multiple news outlets that have large footprints reporting the same essential story that is absorbed by the public as if it is ‘news’.
Apparently and allegedly, it wasn’t news. It was basically the opposite (or at least interpreted by the oil markets as the opposite): Hope for the winding down of the war was reported when in fact no winding down of the war was shared by Mr. T. The ‘take away’ quote from the speech was:
…’“I can say tonight we are on track to complete all of America’s military objectives shortly, very shortly,” Trump said in a primetime addresson Wednesday. “We’re going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks; we’re going to bring them back to the stone ages where they belong. In the meantime, discussions are ongoing.”…(The Hill 4/1/26)
After the speech last night TKL shared:
…’Tonight's situation is incredibly puzzling.
In President Trump's address to the nation just now, he effectively reread many of his recent social media posts out loud.
Between threatening Iran's power plants, saying the Iran War would last 2-3 more weeks, and calling out NATO, there was nothing new.
Yet, the market is now trading like the Iran War is ramping up for another month-long escalation.’…(TKL via LinkedIn)
And indeed after oil prices had calmed down to around $100/barrel for WTI (West Texas Intermediate crude), prices for WTI approximately @8:42am EST were around $111/barrel; up $11.51 since yesterday (please see image at top of article).
These kinds of swings in a market as big as oil is not normal and represents huge opportunities for speculators on the ‘right’ side of the trade. The trading strategy imparted by Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament (at the top of this article) has apparently held true again over the last 24 hours: the pre market (or in this case, pre-speech) is a ‘reverse indicator’. Established news sources reported that it was expected that in his speech POTUS would convey a ‘winding down’ of the war. The market’s interpretation of his conveyance of his intentions was anything but a ‘winding down’.
One of the questions that comes up when looking this phenomenon is ‘who benefits (cui bono)’? The Iranian Speaker of the Parliament seems to be making all this too easy to predict the direction but not the deflection/potential deception being levied on citizens and investors.
If major news outlets are saying ‘peace, peace’ when there is no peace and the man behind the resolute desk knows that there is no peace-wouldn’t it be reasonable to consider that big players are onto this ‘reverse indicator’ pattern and potentially profiting handsomely from it?
As an observer, it appears that it is actually being made too easy for traders, hedge fund managers and the like regarding the oil trade. But again, this is just an observation.
If the theory of a ‘reverse indicator’ is useful to predict oil and stock markets, (this is not financial advice, consult a financial advisor) then if the leader of the country is saying the ‘war’ is going well-is implying a ‘reverse indicator’ to the out come of the war itself useful?
On a hopefully not related note: IMHO, this martial action is a precursor to a swan song for the US dollar as the current administration is (again IMHO) chomping at the bit to bring in the new privately issued cryptocurrency as outlined in the GENIUS Act that was signed into law last year. Members of the first family are reportedly and allegedly holding stakes in four different cryptocurrency ventures including World Liberty Financial. World Liberty Financial was founded by President Donald Trump, his sons, the president's special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Witkoff's sons.
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Stan Szymanski (or Encouraging Angels) is not a medical doctor. This is not medical advice. In all matters pertaining to the health and care of a human being consult a medical doctor. This is not legal, financial or personal advice. Consult appropriate professionals in those fields for that type of advice. For informational purposes only.