https://thelibertydaily.com/is-there-a-military-mobilization-happening-within-our-borders/
Stan Szymanski (or Encouraging Angels) is not a medical doctor. This is not medical advice. In all matters pertaining to the health and care of a human being consult a medical doctor. This is not legal, financial or personal advice. Consult appropriate professionals in those fields for that type of advice.
Might want to consider taking a look at the products of EcoFlow, Bluetti and Goal Zero (just to name a few) who are in the business of providing energy in an ‘off grid’ manner.
If the disabled or special needs in your care have medicine that needs refridgeration or regularly use a medical machine (cpap, suction machine, etc) that requires electricity-they are going to be in a world of hurt if you don’t now provide for them a way to access a source of alternate electricity. (This is not advice-Please consult a professional in the are of your need/interest.)
https://www.wcvb.com/article/cyber-attacks-infrastructure-us-military/44214276#
Stan Szymanski (or Encouraging Angels) is not a medical doctor. This is not medical advice. In all matters pertaining to the health and care of a human being consult a medical doctor. This is not legal, financial or personal advice. Consult appropriate professionals in those fields for that type of advice.
https://www.podbean.com/ew/pb-suski-143488f
Stan Szymanski (or Encouraging Angels) is not a medical doctor. This is not medical advice. In all matters pertaining to the health and care of a human being consult a medical doctor. This is not legal, financial or personal advice. Consult appropriate professionals in those fields for that type of advice.
Why won’t Zelensky negotiate? Why won’t the US (who is funding the war in the Ukraine)?
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/putin-pleas-for-peace/
Stan Szymanski (or Encouraging Angels) is not a medical doctor. This is not medical advice. In all matters pertaining to the health and care of a human being consult a medical doctor. This is not legal, financial or personal advice. Consult appropriate professionals in those fields for that type of advice.
https://www.podbean.com/ew/pb-65wur-1432f15
Stan Szymanski (or Encouraging Angels) is not a medical doctor. This is not medical advice. In all matters pertaining to the health and care of a human being consult a medical doctor. This is not legal, financial or personal advice. Consult appropriate professionals in those fields for that type of advice.
Do you have a disabled or special needs person you are responsible for? Do they have what they need in this area? If not, you may have your work cut out for you…(this is not medical advice..seek the help of a medical doctor)…
https://www.drugs.com/drug-shortages/
Stan Szymanski (or Encouraging Angels) is not a medical doctor. This is not medical advice. In all matters pertaining to the health and care of a human being consult a medical doctor. This is not legal, financial or personal advice. Consult appropriate professionals in those fields for that type of advice.
Photo Credit: The 2000 Year Fix
2nd in a series of Civil Defense writings for Disabled and Special Needs Families with an interview of Civil Defense Expert Jack Lawson. Mr Lawsons’ opinions are his own.
By Stan Szymanski
I have been talking with people in the area where I live about the all too apparent unpleasantries that have appeared on our collective landscape.
In general, people have no idea of the magnitude of the falling status of the US Dollar as the world reserve currency. They do not consider the implications of the US being involved in World War III because our news media does not portray said conflict in that light.
The US has already been allegedly subject to biowarfare through a corporate cabal conspiring to convey Covid chemical concoctions to the everyday commoner. The spiritual ramifications of a country that has had every moral line in the sand crossed and who has a collective lack of fear of a Holy God will bring a spirit and environment of chaos. The potential collapse of the financial system would leave individuals unprepared and without the resources to handle the most basic of needs.
It's about the WATER!
The most basic and necessary component of preparation resources is water. If the availability of electricity went away due to an EMP, a grid attack or a large enough CME, how would water get into the average persons’ home? For the overwhelming majority of America, it wouldn’t. And most US citizens have -no- back up plan to provide an alternative way to procure a necessity that if they had to go without for three days, would kill them.
The fact is that everyone needs to have a backup plan for when water is not available from the normal outlets. A caregiver of the disabled or special needs individuals might literally be put into the situation of abandoning their caregiving obligations to go find water because they were derelict in their duties of providing a way to collect and purify water for themselves and those who are in their charge ahead of a destabilizing event.
When it comes to Civil Defense we should ask our questions of the man who literally wrote the book (Civil Defense Manual) on the subject. Jack has served in the United States Air Force as a middle guidance and SAFO nuclear arming controls electronic technician and has written The Slavers Wheel, And We Hide From The Devil, In Defense and of course Civil Defense Manual Volumes 1 and 2. Please consider purchasing this incredible reference guide for when there is no electricity of internet available.
Jack, thank you for sharing your knowledge and insight here again. Firstly, can you speak to the general level of unpreparedness and understanding that you see when it comes the issue of water?
VERY FEW Americans have any stored water! Unlike food to some, water is taken for granted, but…
Either bad water… or the lack of it… will be the first item to kill millions of the Industrialized World within days of an Extraordinary Catastrophic Event.
Most of the world’s people can drink water you can’t drink…
As a friend of mine who lived in the ‘Third World’ recently reminded me… and as I witnessed and experienced in Third and Fourth World countries in Africa, Central America, Southeast Asia and I imagine much of the rest of the world… most of the world’s population can drink water from a mud puddle and they will generally be okay. Maybe some upset stomach and probable parasitic organisms from this, but they don’t flat-out die immediately. We carry around water in bottles that has been disinfected for drinking when in those countries… you don’t want to use their ice cubes or eat their “washed with water” salads or vegetables either. I advise so.
Americans and peoples of the Industrialized World would die from one teaspoon of what most people in the world drink for water, or at the least, become violently ill.
Why? Because our intestinal systems are not accustomed to the bacteria and organisms in such water. In addition to over use of antibiotics, everything Americans ingest is so devoid of bacteria as a result of chemical treatment, preservatives and refrigeration, that even slightly spoiled food gives us diarrhea or worse. This is food that most in the world would voraciously, hungrily and with an ear to ear smile on their faces, consume with little or no ill effect. Think… recalls of food for salmonella bacteria, E. Coli (Escherichia coli) etc.. Never used to be as prevalent.
Water. We just turn the faucet on, right? Think of the gallons of water you use just to rinse dishes, wash your car, bathe, shower and to clean with. Think… the next time you turn on a water faucet how simple and abundant it is. Water.
However, this “taken for granted” liquid is subject to disruption as are other items. Your water supply will shut off from the lack of electricity or disruption of the controlling infrastructure, computers. I question whether your water supply will flow WITH electricity and the computer systems functioning… as by laws and liability, water has to be treated with chemicals by law before it is distributed with the computer control systems functioning, electric power system on and electric pumps pressurizing the system to make it flow to your water tap.
For instance, if tanker trucks and rail cars that carry huge amounts of chlorine can’t deliver, the common disinfecting chemical treatment or filtration supplies, I question whether water system administrators will keep water systems operable. This sounds bizarre, but bureaucrats are bureaucrats, and many lack common sense. So, would people die of thirst from lack of water flowing through the area water works… or would they put out water that’s contaminated violating laws and creating liability for them? I don’t know.
Diarrhea will come from drinking contaminated water. Diarrhea can kill faster than just about any affliction… have the drug Loperamide and Oral rehydration solution DripDrop on hand to control it. Loperamide, AKA Imodium Pro or Imodium AD, can cause heart problems or death if you take too much.
Contaminated and untreated water contain common bacteria that Americans were not as sensitive to in the past. Americans do not have the bacteria and parasite resistance that our ancestors had. ‘Bad water,’ that our ancestors could drink with minor gastro-intestinal issues, will kill most Americans after they drink it. If it doesn’t kill you… you’ll probably be so sick that you wish you were dead. My experience with these problems were some of the most miserable times in my life that I can recall.
Single cell protozoa called Cryptosporidium and Giardia Lamblia will also mostly likely be in your raw untreated water source. Outbreaks of these contaminants still occurs frequently in the modern industrialized world because chlorine, the common swimming pool disinfectant, does not kill these ugly, stubborn little hard-shelled parasitic buggers. They can live over 12 hours in strong solutions of chlorine. These parasites create severe intestinal problems accompanied by diarrhea.
What is the first step that a family or a caregiving situation should take in getting started with water preparation?
Store water!
The Caregiver and their Patient can last without food for about 3 weeks under most circumstances… Without water YOU and Your Patient will die within 3 to 4 DAYS.
THE RULE IS: One gallon of water for One Day for One person. So, to put it in simple terms, to have enough water for 14 days (I recommend way more than this), YOU and your Patient will need 28 GALLONS OF WATER TO SURVIVE that a period of two weeks.
Buy the 5-gallon dispenser bottles, 1-gallon (Walmart Great Value) or cases of 24 bottled water. Most “by the case” water bottles come in 16.9 to 21 fluid ounce sizes. 128 fluid ounces per gallon. Do the math for whatever size you buy. YOU CANNOT EVER HAVE ENOUGH if outside water sources stop flowing.
You will need six (6) 5-gallon water dispenser bottles, OR…
28, 1-gallon water bottles, OR…
216, 17-fluid-ounce water bottles (9 cases of 24 bottles), OR…
171, 21-fluid-ounce water bottles (7 cases of 24 bottles).
Where do I put these!?
You’ll be amazed the empty spaces you have in your home. Under beds, in closets, make a towel covered table behind couches, etc.
Weight! Water weighs 8 lbs. per gallon so, 28 gallons of water weighs 224 lbs. This is not a dangerous amount of weight, but understand that if more than 28 gallons is stored in one place, not spread out, it can be a hazard to second floor apartments and homes with floors built above ground. Store water spread out in different areas and in corners and against walls if the floor is not concrete directly on solid ground.
One gallon of water for One Day for One person will give enough water for two weeks to hydrate each person to keep them alive, provide a small amount for cooking but enough only for a sponge bath of the face, arm pits, crotch areas… obviously in that order.
Obviously, people will need to collect water somehow if it is not flowing from the tap. Can you give us a starting point for water collection?
In an emergency…
Bathtub: Close the bathtub drain, cover it with tape to seal it tightly and before water pressure stops, fill that tub and every pan and container you can find. Fill garbage bags with water, tie the tops and put in corners. Fill pails… fill everything!
Toilets: 2 to 5 gallons in the top toilet tank. Dip it out into another container. USE THIS WATER ONLY IF THERE ARE NO CHLORINE TABLETS OR CHLORINE DISPENSORS or other treatment items in the tank. Do not take water from the toilet bowl, obviously.
Water Heater: These have from 5 gallons to 50 gallons of water. Shut off the gas or electric to these. Then, at the bottom of each water heater there usually is a drain to drain the tank. Empty into other containers.
Rain water and snow: You can collect these with a water proof tarp or large garbage bags… but NEVER rely on snow rain water. It takes about 13 inches of snow to make the 1-inch equivalent of rain water.
In many cases, once you have the water collected it is not yet potable (safe for human consumption)? One can buy water filters from a time tested reputable source such as Robert Griswald at Ready Made Resources-What type of filters should be considered?
Stan, there is WAY TOO MUCH to post it here. If readers go to the Civil Defense Manual they can read the entire Chapter 13 on water for free. However, I will give some brief information here.
Making water safe… water treatment procedures: I call water from a city or private water source that has been properly tested and treated for contaminants… “tamed water.” Water from a water source not a tested and treated city or private water source I call “wild water.” The difference is that “wild water” takes more processing by you to make it safe to drink, bath in or use in cooking and it takes at least twice as much chemical to make it safe.
You have to kill and or remove what you can’t see in the water that is dangerous to you. Both Chlorine bleach, also known as Sodium Hypochlorite and “Pool Shock” also known as granular Calcium Hypochlorite, will kill most harmful bacteria and organisms in “Wild Water.” Granular Calcium Hypochlorite is better.
There are complete water treatment and storage systems available on the internet. I highly recommend what Stan recommends for readiness supplies… Ready Made Resources has about all the water processing equipment you can think of. Filter “Wild Water” first to remove particulate. Some systems you find at Ready Made Resources will take literal muddy water, filter and treat it to be potable and safe to drink.
Filter out large particulate first. For safe clean water you have to first filter large particulate out… then boil, distill, chemically treat, filter the water on the micron level or Ultraviolet Light disinfect. A Micron is smaller than a human hair. You can use finely woven cloth like kitchen “Terry Towels” or Micron Fiber towels to filter water in a pinch.
However, in lieu of a system like that, you make “Wild Water” potable, safe water by doing the following…
• Filter the Water. Filter the majority of particles (‘particulate’ equals sand, mud, dirt, foreign matter-generally junk) from the water. You must filter the water through fine mesh cloth material or coffee filters. Filtered water can also be dangerous when you use carbon or paper filters and the filters are not changed or cleaned on a regular basis THEN,
• Boil the water OR,
• Distill the water OR,
• Chemically Treat the water OR,
• Micron Particle Filtration. After filtering out as much ‘junk’ or particulate (Think… sand, dirt, foreign matter and mud) as you can, put it through a fine micron particle water filtration system…
OR, Ultraviolet Light Disinfect Treatment.
Radioactivity and Water: To have radioactive water, the radioactive isotope has to fix to another particle, suspended chemical or heavy metal in the water… something other than the water molecule… because radioactive isotopes will not attach to the water molecule itself, unless within the proximity of a nuclear fireball.
For safe, clean, radioactivity minimized water, you have to first filter large particulate out… then boil, distill, chemically treat, filter the water on the micron level or Ultraviolet Light disinfect. Boiling or distilling water will not remove most radioactivity.
So super filtering the fine particles out of water down to the micron level does the most to reduce your radioactive exposure from water.
The exception is sea water. The sodium in sea water will remain radioactive for about 5 days, then will drop to ‘half-life’ tolerable levels safe enough for humans to use. So do not use sea water for anything, including hydrating foods, cooking or bathing for at least a week after sea water contamination from a nuclear blast.
Bacteria can grow within these filters themselves and contaminate the water. Some solid substances can be removed with filters, but few filter systems can remove viruses, bacteria, pathogens, radioactive or chemical compounds and completely soluble pollutants. Think… the Lake Water System by Vitasalus as the most efficient that generates huge quantities of water.
You can also filter the water by letting the larger particles in it settle to the bottom of a large container and pouring the water out, or drawing the water out or draining the container with a tap or siphon above the particle line, being careful not to take the water back out containing the particles.
Again, diarrhea can kill faster than just about any affliction… have the drug Loperamide and Oral rehydration solution DripDrop on hand to control it. Loperamide, AKA Imodium Pro or Imodium AD, can cause heart problems or death if you take too much.
Speaking of the ultimate “Instruction Manual, Also Known As “The Bible” … just pray that God ordains there never be a water shortage in our complex society. It will be a Catastrophic Event beyond our imaginations…
There are a lot of spiritual references in The Bible when it comes to water. An interesting one is found in the book of Isaiah:
…’With joy you will draw water from the wells of salvation.’…(Isaiah 12:3 NIV)
That passage is talking about God becoming our salvation. But when water doesn’t pour into your sink in the normal fashion-If someone ahead of time has prepared with a well or some type of water collection won’t they draw water with joy from this provision and feel incredibly blessed? Have you ever been in a situation where water was scarce and you felt like you found salvation when you finally found clean water?
I have gone without water twice for three days in Africa. In addition, the second time we were on a forced march in deep, dark Africa. I and the others were fit and to some degree tempered with lack of water situations. But that was the worst thirst I’ve ever experienced. We were so thirsty the second time that we drank our saline drip bags, which were 5% sodium solution that later made it worse. Most people my age now and unfit would have died. Tough, tough men of my Commando unit were starting to go out of their heads with panic and desperation from thirst.
I’d like to add that my belief is that if we do not take care of the disabled and handicapped… if they do not survive because of us… in my opinion there is no reason for the rest of us to live. In letting the disabled die we have failed the best characteristic of humanity. Compassion. These people are God’s Gift to us through which He tries our will and teaches us compassion.
Like a soldier, one of my best friends used to say repeatedly…
“We sleep safe in our beds because rough men stand watch as our guardians in the night to visit violence on those who would do us harm. A soldier must seize every advantage to defeat his opponent. He must strike swiftly and strike hard... he who dares... wins. But under all circumstances those guardians must stand ready to protect the innocent and those too weak or unable to defend themselves…” - Often spoken quote of New Zealander Martin O. of my unit 1RLI Support Commando, Killed In Action - Africa 1979
A warning! If you live in a “Bee Hive Area” or “Nanny State” heavily populated area…move out! The theory has been well expressed by Bill Gates, Yuval Harari and others of the “One World Globalist Elites” that “Useless Eaters” should be left to die. That includes the elderly and disabled. Their “ant colony” world of darkness and compassionless thinking encourages this.
Jack, thanks so much for again blessing people with your insight. What would you like to say in closing?
This is part of Civil Defense for the Disabled/Special Needs community-but this is applicable to all.
Jack’s incredible resource Civil Defense Manual Volumes 1 and 2 are available at Civil Defense Manual.
———-
If you appreciate this article can you consider a gift to Encouraging Angels for the intelligence we provided today? Click this link to give. We need the support. Links to this article are encouraged. Reproductions of this writing are only allowed by written permission of the author and those reproductions must include this proviso of request for support, how this writing may be reproduced and following disclaimers.
All rights reserved.
Stan Szymanski (or Encouraging Angels) is not a medical doctor. Neither Stan Szymanski or Encouraging Angels is offering any type of personal advice. This is not medical advice. In all matters pertaining to the health and care of a human being consult a medical doctor. This is not legal, financial or personal advice. Consult appropriate professionals in those fields for that type of advice.
https://www.podbean.com/ew/pb-ip4e4-14302b3
Stan Szymanski (or Encouraging Angels) is not a medical doctor. This is not medical advice. In all matters pertaining to the health and care of a human being consult a medical doctor. This is not legal, financial or personal advice. Consult appropriate professionals in those fields for that type of advice.
…and the end times center of power…until Jesus return, that is…
https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2023/06/12/who-and-eu-digital-health-partnership.aspx?v=1686569498 (you will need to sign up with an email address to read the article-totally with it IMHO)
Stan Szymanski (or Encouraging Angels) is not a medical doctor. This is not medical advice. In all matters pertaining to the health and care of a human being consult a medical doctor. This is not legal, financial or personal advice. Consult appropriate professionals in those fields for that type of advice.
Read. World War III is apparently underway.
Stan Szymanski (or Encouraging Angels) is not a medical doctor. This is not medical advice. In all matters pertaining to the health and care of a human being consult a medical doctor. This is not legal, financial or personal advice. Consult appropriate professionals in those fields for that type of advice.
https://www.podbean.com/ew/pb-xizkz-142beb5
Stan Szymanski (or Encouraging Angels) is not a medical doctor. This is not medical advice. In all matters pertaining to the health and care of a human being consult a medical doctor. This is not legal, financial or personal advice. Consult appropriate professionals in those fields for that type of advice.
Stan Szymanski (or Encouraging Angels) is not a medical doctor. This is not medical advice. In all matters pertaining to the health and care of a human being consult a medical doctor. This is not legal, financial or personal advice. Consult appropriate professionals in those fields for that type of advice.
Stan Szymanski (or Encouraging Angels) is not a medical doctor. This is not medical advice. In all matters pertaining to the health and care of a human being consult a medical doctor. This is not legal, financial or personal advice. Consult appropriate professionals in those fields for that type of advice.
https://www.podbean.com/ew/pb-tpj3f-142aebf
Stan Szymanski (or Encouraging Angels) is not a medical doctor. This is not medical advice. In all matters pertaining to the health and care of a human being consult a medical doctor. This is not legal, financial or personal advice. Consult appropriate professionals in those fields for that type of advice.
https://give.do/blog/abhoy-mission-caring-for-the-elderly-and-disabled-children/
Stan Szymanski (or Encouraging Angels) is not a medical doctor. This is not medical advice. In all matters pertaining to the health and care of a human being consult a medical doctor. This is not legal, financial or personal advice. Consult appropriate professionals in those fields for that type of advice.
https://www.podbean.com/ew/pb-bu9qx-1429677
Stan Szymanski (or Encouraging Angels) is not a medical doctor. This is not medical advice. In all matters pertaining to the health and care of a human being consult a medical doctor. This is not legal, financial or personal advice. Consult appropriate professionals in those fields for that type of advice.
https://www.podbean.com/ew/pb-gfyyj-142771f
Stan Szymanski (or Encouraging Angels) is not a medical doctor. This is not medical advice. In all matters pertaining to the health and care of a human being consult a medical doctor. This is not legal, financial or personal advice. Consult appropriate professionals in those fields for that type of advice.
https://www.theedadvocate.org/its-a-snap-4-ways-to-use-music-with-special-needs-students/
Stan Szymanski (or Encouraging Angels) is not a medical doctor. This is not medical advice. In all matters pertaining to the health and care of a human being consult a medical doctor. This is not legal, financial or personal advice. Consult appropriate professionals in those fields for that type of advice.
Photo Credit: L & K Bespoke Tailors
By Stan Szymanski
On June 30, 2023 the financial world changes. On that date all derivatives and credit contracts that were based on the LIBOR (London Interbank Offer Rate) that have not already switched, will begin using the SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) as the new standard rate on which to base financial contracts upon. The risks to the financial system can be summarized thusly:
…’Transitioning to a new benchmark rate is difficult, as there are trillions of dollars worth of LIBOR-based contracts outstanding and some of these are not set to mature until the LIBOR’s retirement. That includes the widely used three-month U.S. dollar LIBOR, which has approximately $200 trillion of debt and contracts tied to it.’… (Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) Definition and History). According to a May 2023 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Report…’many older contracts only have fallbacks appropriate for a temporary outage of LIBOR rather than its permanent cessation, and some contracts do not have any fallbacks at all.’…
So long story short, the transition of all dollar based derivative and credit contracts from LIBOR to SOFR involves at a minimum, hundreds of Trillions of Dollars of arrangements that will be trying to find some sort of market value on and after June 30, 2023. There is no firm tried and true pathway of conversion of valuation regarding the aforementioned massive quantity of financial instruments which will happen roughly at the same time. This, IMHO, will pose a significant risk to the viability of the western financial system. Only a few weeks after the cessation of the publication of LIBOR (12/31/21) and coinciding with the start of the Ukrainian war one can see the stair step higher of the ‘Risk Free Rate (SOFR). In my opinion, this rise in rates highlights the increase in risk and also is an attempt by market forces (and the powers that be: Fed/US Treasury/ International bodies) to find a more realistic ‘cost of money’ in the opaque world of derivatives where we will see-the elite write their own rules.
What is a Derivative?
…’The term derivative refers to a type of financial contract whose value is dependent on an underlying asset, group of assets, or benchmark. A derivative is set between two or more parties that can trade on an exchange or over-the-counter (OTC).’…(Investopedia)
So because of the transition from the use of LIBOR to SOFR the derivatives that are of particular interest at this time are the ones that are dollar denominated.
According to JP Morgan:
…’Regulators around the globe have developed more robust and transaction-based risk-free rates (RFRs) that are compliant with IOSCO financial benchmark standards for almost $400 trillion of wholesale and consumer products. ’…
These ‘Risk-free Rates’ (RFR) are supposed to be more ‘real world’ because they are based on transactions instead of being set by 16 international member banks as LIBOR was (is).
What is recognized as a ‘Risk-Free Rate (RFR)?
…’The risk-free rate of return is the theoretical rate of return of an investment with zero risk. The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. …’In practice, the risk-free rate of return does not truly exist, as every investment carries at least a small amount of risk.’…’If you are finding a proxy for the risk-free rate of return, you must consider the investor's home market.’… ‘Different countries and economic zones use different benchmarks as their risk-free rate. The interest rate on a three-month U.S. Treasury bill (T-bill) is often used as the risk-free rate for U.S.-based investors.(Investopedia)
SOFR, representing loans backed by Treasury bonds (T-bonds), (Bills, Notes and Bonds posted as collateral in the Treasury Repo market-this note added) is a virtually risk-free rate. (SOFR Definition and History)
On March 27, 2023 the ISDA posted an article to its website entitled ‘The Final LIBOR Hurdle’ by ISDA Chief Executive Officer Scott O'Malia. In the article, Mr. O’Malia makes an interesting and salient point:
…’the volume of US dollar LIBOR derivatives far exceeds the amount linked to the other LIBOR currencies. While firms now have a tried-and-tested playbook, it means there is an extra level of complexity associated with this transition that requires close attention.’…
So the ‘US Dollar LIBOR derivatives far exceeds the amount linked to the other LIBOR currencies’. This means that the act of conversion of the US Dollar LIBOR derivatives from LIBOR to SOFR will have the biggest impact to the markets.
The ISDA also published an ‘IBOR Fallback Rate Adjustment Rule Book’-A 25 page pdf that describes the machinations of calculating the ‘spread’. The spread (Fallback Rate Adjustment) is the variable amount of payout that allows for uncertainty over and above the RFR (Risk Free Rate). In addition to the profound calculations found within the document, I found that according to the ISDA, that on a day that the most is happening (the occurrence of a ‘Market Disruption Event’) that day will not be considered a ‘business day’:
___________________________
Please refer to our proviso at the end of the article regarding any reproduction of this writing and consider a donation to Encouraging Angels today.
—————————————-
Section 5. General Rules
5.1 Consequences of a Market Disruption Event
…’If, on any day, a Market Disruption Event occurs or is occurring, the Adjustment Services Vendor shall treat the day(s) upon which the value(s) of any Underlying Rate, or any other price or necessary information for purposes of calculating the Rate Adjustment is unavailable or during which it is otherwise unable to perform the requisite calculations, as not constituting a Business Day(s).‘…(IBOR Fallback Rate Adjustment Rule Book)
I am not a math wiz by any means. However, I have a hunch that if a big enough ‘Market Disruption Event’ occurs during the application of these rules, it would be enough to shut down or destroy the derivatives markets. Otherwise, why wouldn’t they call it a business day? If they can get away with not calling a business day like say, October 19, 1987 was a business day-well then we would have never had a market crash of 22% in one day.
Why didn’t Alan Greenspan think of just calling 10/19/1987 ‘not a business day’? Then, he wouldn’t have had to inject all that money into the system to keep it going! I’m glad that the people running things today have so much more common sense (sarcasm off).
If the holders of derivatives contracts didn’t have the option of invoking ‘not a business day’ and had to perform the calculation for the ‘spread’ and the spread did not cover the difference then, in my view, the derivative contract fails.
If you think that the elite who trade ‘not cleared’ derivatives (trades that are just between two parties and they like it that way) can only get creative with their workweek-think again!
In 2020 the ISDA (International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc) Issued a document: ISDA 2020 IBOR Fallbacks Protocol (IBOR Fallbacks Protocol) FAQs that offered ‘guidance’ to many questions when it comes to the use of the RFR and the additional spreads as it pertains to the conversion of derivatives contracts use of LIBOR to SOFR in their documents and the real world implications of such. Unbelievably, ‘parties can bilaterally agree to preserve bespoke provisions (emphasis added) in their Protocol Covered Documents’:
…’As explained in Question 12 (Can parties agree bilaterally to amend the terms or scope of the IBOR Fallbacks Protocol?), parties can bilaterally agree to preserve bespoke provisions in their Protocol Covered Documents that would otherwise be amended pursuant to the IBOR Fallbacks Protocol. Parties should carefully consider whether the IBOR Fallbacks Protocol will override or otherwise amend bespoke provisions in their Protocol Covered Documents and seek advice from professional advisors as required.’…(ISDA 2020 IBOR Fallbacks Protocol (IBOR Fallbacks Protocol) FAQs)
So in the end-after all of the steps to try to maintain order as the world precariously makes the shift from LIBOR to SOFR in the 400 Trillion (or do I mean Quintillion) dollar derivatives market, the elite, the ‘Powers That Be’-The ‘Masters of the Universe’ can and will do what they have always done…WHATEVER THE HELL THEY WANT TO!
Many traders and pundits today think that rates in the short end of the US Treasury market have gone up because there is an increasing rate of default of the United States debt. There is some truth to that especially in light of a recent U. S. CDS (Credit Default Swap) print of about 160-about where it was when Lehman went down in 2008.
But if that is the case, why are the rates on the 10 year and 30 year bond not going -substantially higher (and prices lower)- when the market starts believing en masse that the governments won’t be able to pay its bills? Who would put a bid under that bond?
Is the Federal Reserve really using its moral suasion to ‘fight inflation’ and push the Fed Funds Rate above 5%? In reality is it possible that the Fed is not pushing short rates higher to fight and extinguish inflation but is pricing a bigger return, a higher interest for the ‘Risk Free Rate’ portion of the to those settling derivatives trades?
Remember that …’the volume of US dollar LIBOR derivatives far exceeds the amount linked to the other LIBOR currencies’…A ‘risk-free’ interest rate of 5% of US T bills is anything but ‘risk free’ and where almost no other (I believe there may be one) county’s RFR has gone up in a graduated fashion such as the US since the beginning of the Ukrainian war and just 7 weeks after the cessation of derivatives contracts issued with any mention of LIBOR: ycharts
The ‘Risk-Free Rate (SOFR)’ plus the ‘spread (the ISDA Fallbacks protocol)’ is really just a ‘best guess’ at fudging the real value of derivatives contracts.
I believe it is quite possible that short term US rates are high because they, as the ‘Risk-Free Rate’, compensate the massive derivatives market for the new risks they are taking in the conversion of their contracts from LIBOR to SOFR. Especially considering that the IBOR Fallback Rate Adjustment Rule Book allows they system to take a day off (‘not constituting a business day’) in the event of a ‘Market Disruption Event’ (a default, a nuclear event, declaration of war, market crash, etc…). I think that it may even be possible that a market day outside of a standard deviation of their amazing calculations might be enough to invoke a ‘not constituting a business day’ provision for them to try to save their hind ends.
The elite change the rules (LIBOR to SOFR), give themselves the right to rewrite history (not constituting a business day) and the ability to maintain their ‘bespoke’ provisions (after changing the rules) with their partners in skullduggery-whomever has the other side of their trade.
We know that basically, all markets are rigged. But when they actually start to write it down, we can be pretty sure that they have -completely- lost their minds as they lose the rest of the world (and their influence) to the BRICS nations. The ‘Masters of the Universe’ are backed into a corner and trying not to lose their collective shirt.
Watch out for the next weekday that is ruled as ‘not constituting a business day’.
———-
If you appreciate this article can you consider a gift to Encouraging Angels for the intelligence we provided today? Click this link to give. We need the support. Links to this article are encouraged. Reproductions of this writing are only allowed by written permission of the author and those reproductions must include this proviso of request for support, how this writing may be reproduced and following disclaimers.
All rights reserved.
Stan Szymanski (or Encouraging Angels) is not a medical doctor. This is not medical advice. In all matters pertaining to the health and care of a human being consult a medical doctor. This is not legal, financial or personal advice. Consult appropriate professionals in those fields for that type of advice.
Photo Credit: BlueLoafers
This article has been given a facelift (an edit) and renamed. To read the updated article please go to https://www.encouragingangels.org/new-blog/2023/6/3/xdrk76wzjrvn048h10i2zerng7lp1v
A bespoke fitting indeed…
By Stan Szymanski
On June 30, 2023 the financial world changes. On that date all contracts that were based on the LIBOR (London Interbank Offer Rate) that have not already switched, will begin using the SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) as the new standard rate on which to base financial contracts upon. While SOFR is becoming the yardstick rate for dollar-denominated derivatives and loans, other countries have desired their own substitute rates, such as SONIA (Sterling Overnight Index Average) and EONIA (Euro Overnight Index Average).
The changeover from LIBOR to SOFR started in April 2018 when the Federal Reserve began to publish the SOFR.
Benchmark rates such as SOFR (and the soon to be defunct, LIBOR) play a crucial role in the derivatives market as especially in regard to Interest Rate Swaps:
…’Interest rate swaps usually involve the exchange of a fixed interest rate for a floating rate, or vice versa, to reduce or increase exposure to fluctuations in interest rates or to obtain a marginally lower interest rate than would have been possible without the swap.’…(Investopedia)
What is a Derivative?
…’The term derivative refers to a type of financial contract whose value is dependent on an underlying asset, group of assets, or benchmark. A derivative is set between two or more parties that can trade on an exchange or over-the-counter (OTC).’…(Investopedia)
So because of the transition from the use of LIBOR to SOFR the derivatives that are of particular interest at this time are the ones that are dollar denominated.
According to JP Morgan:
…’Regulators around the globe have developed more robust and transaction-based risk-free rates (RFRs) that are compliant with IOSCO financial benchmark standards for almost $400 trillion of wholesale and consumer products. ’…
These ‘Risk-free Rates’ (RFR) are supposed to be more ‘real world’ because they are based on transactions instead of being set by 16 international member banks as LIBOR was (is).
What is recognized as a ‘Risk-Free Rate (RFR)?
…’The risk-free rate of return is the theoretical rate of return of an investment with zero risk. The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. …’In practice, the risk-free rate of return does not truly exist, as every investment carries at least a small amount of risk.’…’If you are finding a proxy for the risk-free rate of return, you must consider the investor's home market.’… ‘Different countries and economic zones use different benchmarks as their risk-free rate. The interest rate on a three-month U.S. Treasury bill (T-bill) is often used as the risk-free rate for U.S.-based investors.
On March 27, 2023 the ISDA posted an article to its website entitled ‘The Final LIBOR Hurdle’ by ISDA Chief Executive Officer Scott O'Malia. In the article, Mr. O’Malia makes an interesting and salient point:
…’the volume of US dollar LIBOR derivatives far exceeds the amount linked to the other LIBOR currencies. While firms now have a tried-and-tested playbook, it means there is an extra level of complexity associated with this transition that requires close attention.’…
So the ‘US Dollar LIBOR derivatives far exceeds the amount linked to the other LIBOR currencies’. This means that the act of conversion of the US Dollar LIBOR derivatives from LIBOR to SOFR will have the biggest impact to the markets.
The ISDA also published an ‘IBOR Fallback Rate Adjustment Rule Book’-A 25 page pdf that describes the machinations of calculating the ‘spread’. The spread (Fallback Rate Adjustment) is the variable amount of payout that allows for uncertainty over and above the RFR (Risk Free Rate). In addition to the profound calculations found within the document, I found that according to the ISDA, that on a day that the most is happening (the occurrence of a ‘Market Disruption Event’) that day will not be considered a ‘business day’:
___________________________
Please refer to our proviso at the end of the article regarding any reproduction of this writing and consider a donation to Encouraging Angels today.
—————————————-
Section 5. General Rules
5.1 Consequences of a Market Disruption Event
…’If, on any day, a Market Disruption Event occurs or is occurring, the Adjustment Services Vendor shall treat the day(s) upon which the value(s) of any Underlying Rate, or any other price or necessary information for purposes of calculating the Rate Adjustment is unavailable or during which it is otherwise unable to perform the requisite calculations, as not constituting a Business Day(s).‘…(IBOR Fallback Rate Adjustment Rule Book)
I am not a math wiz by any means. However, I have a hunch that if a big enough ‘Market Disruption Event’ occurs during the application of these rules, it would be enough to shut down or destroy the derivatives markets. Otherwise, why wouldn’t they call it a business day? If they can get away with not calling a business day like say, October 19, 1987 was a business day-well then we would have never had a market crash of 22% in one day.
Why didn’t Alan Greenspan think of just calling 10/19/1987 ‘not a business day’? Then, he wouldn’t have had to inject all that money into the system to keep it going! I’m glad that the people running things today have so much more common sense (sarcasm off).
If the holders of derivatives contracts didn’t have the option of invoking ‘not a business day’ and had to perform the calculation for the ‘spread’ and the spread did not cover the difference then, in my view, the derivative contract fails
If you think that the elite who trade ‘not cleared’ derivatives (trades that are just between two parties and they like it that way) can only get creative with their workweek-think again!
In 2020 the ISDA (International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc) Issued a document: ISDA 2020 IBOR Fallbacks Protocol (IBOR Fallbacks Protocol) FAQs that offered ‘guidance’ to many questions when it comes to the use of the RFR and the additional spreads as it pertains to the conversion of derivatives contracts use of LIBOR to SOFR in their documents and the real world implications of such. Unbelievably, ‘parties can bilaterally agree to preserve bespoke provisions (emphasis added) in their Protocol Covered Documents’:
…’As explained in Question 12 (Can parties agree bilaterally to amend the terms or scope of the IBOR Fallbacks Protocol?), parties can bilaterally agree to preserve bespoke provisions in their Protocol Covered Documents that would otherwise be amended pursuant to the IBOR Fallbacks Protocol. Parties should carefully consider whether the IBOR Fallbacks Protocol will override or otherwise amend bespoke provisions in their Protocol Covered Documents and seek advice from professional advisors as required.’…(ISDA 2020 IBOR Fallbacks Protocol (IBOR Fallbacks Protocol) FAQs)
So in the end-after all of the steps to try to maintain order as the world precariously makes the shift from LIBOR to SOFR in the 400 Trillion (or do I mean Quintillion) dollar derivatives market, the elite, the ‘Powers That Be’-The ‘Masters of the Universe’ can and will do what they have always done…WHATEVER THE HELL THEY WANT TO!
Many traders and pundits today think that rates in the short end of the US Treasury market have gone up because there is an increasing rate of default of the United States debt. There is some truth to that especially in light of a recent U. S. CDS (Credit Default Swap) print of about 160-about where it was when Lehman went down in 2008.
But if that is the case, why are the rates on the 10 year and 30 year bond not going -substantially higher (and prices lower)- when the market starts believing en masse that the governments won’t be able to pay its bills? Who would put a bid under that bond?
Is the Federal Reserve really using its moral suasion to ‘fight inflation’ and push the Fed Funds Rate above 5%? In reality is it possible that the Fed is not pushing short rates higher to fight and extinguish inflation but is pricing a bigger return, a higher interest for the ‘Risk Free Rate’ portion of the to those settling derivatives trades?
Remember that …’the volume of US dollar LIBOR derivatives far exceeds the amount linked to the other LIBOR currencies’…A ‘risk-free’ interest rate of 5% of US T bills is anything but ‘risk free’ and where almost no other (I believe there may be one) county’s RFR has gone up in a graduated fashion such as the US since the beginning of the Ukrainian war and just 7 weeks after the cessation of derivatives contracts issued with any mention of LIBOR: ycharts
I believe it is quite possible that short term US rates are high because they, as the ‘Risk-Free Rate’, compensate the massive derivatives market for the new risks they are taking in the conversion of their contracts from LIBOR to SOFR. Especially considering that the IBOR Fallback Rate Adjustment Rule Book allows they system to take a day off (‘not constituting a business day’) in the event of a ‘Market Disruption Event’ (a default, a nuclear event, declaration of war, market crash, etc…). I think that it may even be possible that a market day outside of a standard deviation of their amazing calculations might be enough to invoke a ‘not constituting a business day’ provision for them to try to save their hind ends.
The elite change the rules (LIBOR to SOFR), give themselves the right to rewrite history (not constituting a business day) and the ability to maintain their ‘bespoke’ provisions (after changing the rules) with their partners in skullduggery-whomever has the other side of their trade.
We know that basically, all markets are rigged. But when they actually start to write it down, we can be pretty sure that they have -completely- lost their minds as they lose the rest of the world (and their influence) to the BRICS nations. The ‘Masters of the Universe’ are backed into a corner and trying not to lose their collective shirt.
Watch out for the next weekday that is ruled as ‘not constituting a business day’.
———-
If you appreciate this article can you consider a gift to Encouraging Angels for the intelligence we provided today? Click this link to give. We need the support. Links to this article are encouraged. Reproductions of this writing are only allowed by written permission of the author and those reproductions must include this proviso of request for support, how this writing may be reproduced and following disclaimers.
All rights reserved.
Stan Szymanski (or Encouraging Angels) is not a medical doctor. This is not medical advice. In all matters pertaining to the health and care of a human being consult a medical doctor. This is not legal, financial or personal advice. Consult appropriate professionals in those fields for that type of advice.
All Rights Reserved.
Encouraging Angels is a tax-exempt 501(c)(3) organization that promotes Disability and Speical Needs awareness as well as delivering music services to those affected.
Powered by Squarespace
